Crypto Market Trends and Tendencies: February-March 2018
The first and foremost objective and pain in the neck, for every crypto investor, is to invest in a cryptocurrency in such a way that they don’t end up worse than when they started. The end of 2017 saw market growth and a bitcoin rate increase that logically lead to a massive amount of new players, both big and small. Unfortunately, most of the people who joined this game while the cryptocurrencies were all the rage, are not just doubtful about the future of cryptocurrencies, but really frustrated, since the rate is plummeting and doesn’t seem that it will ever recover.
But is this true? Let’s get to the bottom of this and figure out what’s going on on the crypto market right now, what’s new after the winter’s hibernation, and what we expect from the first months of spring. Let’s also try and answer the most critical question, “Buy or sell?”
As usual, let’s start with a digression. Every market is set up in such a way so that a minority of traders makes a profit, while the majority of traders make wrong decisions. Crypto traders, who stormed into the market right after the lesson break or their last class, first became investors, then strategic investors, and now they are just pumping up the pointless buzz around what’s happening on the crypto market. “Pump and dump” groups are so out of control that spammers stream into various ICO’s open chats almost every hour to promote some “king of pumps channels”. All this, along with the shady activities on a range of exchanges, makes the market suffer, cry, and stumble.
However, the first rule that this story has taught us is that for every crafty person there is always someone craftier, and it’s always the second mouse that ends up with the cheese. Have a look at IPO markets, and you’ll see that a hundred years ago they functioned just like these shady exchanges operate now. But it didn’t last long because the conscious desire to equalize market players and start a fair game took over. The “smartest”, boldest and unluckiest went to prisons, while the rest were forced to obtain licensing, get audited, and become more transparent. Admittedly, even this couldn’t guarantee 100% safety and protection against fraudsters that are still around.
In the Internet era, everything happens much faster. Scam groups form faster to cheat less competent people, millions of dollars are lost faster, but regulators response to fraud is faster as well.
For example, the SEC has knocked on the doors of American exchanges to demand that they comply with strict regulatory procedures, while the IRS has requested information about US tax residents. The same thing is happening on the once boisterous South Korean market where Big Brother is infiltrating every crypto channel with unfailing persistence. It seems like the only missing piece is for Japan to act against the MtGox representative, who isn’t playing nicely and in reality, is just manipulating the market with their actions.
The only unresolved issue so far has been the situation around crypto exchanges that are allowed to do too much, if not anything. In these circumstances, anybody with the right skills and understanding of the market would have trouble restraining themselves from the desire to earn just a little bit more, even though it might not be in an entirely honest way. Thus, a recent independent study has uncovered fake sales volumes on most of the major crypto exchanges. Particular attention was placed on Chinese exchanges with the highest amount of fraudulent sales.
On the other hand, Poloniex, an exchange every self-respecting crypto enthusiast is familiar with, has recently been bought by a start-up, the Circle. While earlier many might have been suspicious about its lack of transparency, now you can be sure that the largest crypto exchange is crystal clear.
Another current market trend can be easily phrased as “while the smart get richer, the less informed keep losing”. For example, a popular “stop-loss hunt” lets you cheat the system by forcing less savvy investors to get rid of their assets at a lower price right before a pump. Needless to say, these actions undermine people’s trust in the market, and the belief in their investments certainty keeps tumbling down. However, there is a positive tendency where the most recent major hacks have been resolved successfully. For instance, Japan is actively trying to solve the issue of a $500 million NEM theft, Coincheck exchange is returning lost assets to customers, and even Binance responded to a hack promptly and managed to protect its clients’ assets. It is entirely possible, even though merely theoretical, that these juicy hacking scandals could, in reality, be a sly, but — let’s face it — an ingenious marketing move. Why not? It’s a brilliant, effortless way of making everyone talk about your company, from mass media to armchair experts.
The G-20 summit is around the corner, which means that soon enough discussions will start about regulations that will both shut the door on fraud and secure traders’ activities. Despite the fact that many are leery of regulation, it’s still good news because it means that the governments aren’t planning to cut off access to cryptocurrencies. Instead, cryptocurrencies are becoming official, and it’s far easier to work and earn a living when it’s clear how the government views your activity.
Rumor has it that South Korea is planning to legalize the ICO market, which means that capable teams equipped with intelligent ideas are now more likely to realize their potential inside the crypto community without fears of legal ambiguity and future difficulties engaging in financial activities.
Another piece of important news is that Russia is planning to fully legalize cryptocurrencies by the summer of 2018. The Mexican government has made similar statements. At this point, it’s too early to assert that Russia is going to have a “crypto spring” this summer. However, if positive tendencies continue, 2018 is expected to become one of the most promising years in the history of cryptocurrencies.
There is good news in the development world as well. The Lightning Network Protocol continues to expand actively, which will surely enhance the entire network’s operation.
Now let’s go back to the main question of buying cryptocurrencies under current market conditions — when there is so much talk about trade wars imminent, the expected volatility of fiat, and the sudden cuts in central banks injections into the market. There are two answers to this question, both of which are correct. The first answer is to prepare cash, lots of cash, and get ready to invest it into anything that will secure your safe future, whether it’s cryptocurrencies, traditional stock, real estate, canned food, or ammunition. The other answer is to start buying bitocoins right this second. There will be more sales in the future, but it’s obvious that major holders aren’t rushing to sell their precious bitcoins at the current market price. This is certainly a good sign, as well as the latest news stating that one of the anonymous millionaire wallets has just been refilled with 10,000 bitcoins. Isn’t this the best proof that a new bitcoin price increase is right around the corner?
And up until then — resupply on bitcoin. Buy, trade, exchange, invest your money wisely, don’t let others manipulate you, don’t sell your bitcoins just because others are panicking and yelling “All is lost!” Finally, you can mine bitcoin yourself or through a cloud mining service. Cloud mining offers a number of advantages compared to mining in your basement or garage. The end of this year is expected to be just as thrilling as the end of 2017, so to avoid shrugging your shoulders later on, invest in your future today.
